The US Market in Search of Positive Signals

SP500

Key zone: 6,800 - 6,900

Buy: 6,950 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 7,100; StopLoss 6,880

Sell: 6,750(on a confident breakout of the 6,800 level); target 6,600; StopLoss 6,820

The index recovered nearly a 5% deficit on the back of strong earnings, renewed optimism around AI, hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and a major shift in expectations regarding upcoming Fed rate cuts. But these factors are already priced in.

A genuinely positive catalyst was consumer activity: Black Friday officially launched the holiday spending season. The National Retail Federation reported a record 202.9 million shoppers during the period. In-store purchases rose 3% year-over-year, and online sales grew 9%. According to Visa, 45% of American shoppers used AI tools to make purchasing decisions.

Market breadth and internal dynamics improved. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average climbed to 60%.

Capital is visibly rotating out of high-tech names into industrials and defense contractors—an indication that risk appetite is cooling.

Still, weak labor-market data strengthens market confidence in a December rate cut.

On Wednesday, U.S. equities were mixed: S&P 500 fell 0.2%, Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat.

Bond yields declined: the 10-year Treasury was at 4.065%, and the U.S. Dollar Index slid to 96.51 as markets priced in a 90% probability of a December Fed cut.

Because markets are focused almost entirely on the Fed’s policy trajectory, jobless-claims data directly impacts the dollar.

Last reading: 216K (vs ~222K prior week), expectation ~220K.

This is key for NAS100:

• Claims above forecast → labor market cooling → Fed may cut earlier → NAS100 gets support.
• Claims below forecast → labor market strong → cuts may be delayed → potential pressure on NAS100.

Expectations & possible surprises:

• Consensus: ~220K
• <215K: strengthens arguments against a quick cut → NAS100 may decline
• >230K: boosts odds of earlier easing → NAS100 may rise

Currently, U.S. equities are still being bought. S&P 500 futures continued higher during Thursday’s premarket session.

We maintain a medium-term bullish outlook, but a technical correction is increasingly necessary. Without it, large clusters of resting sell orders above key levels could trigger a deep pullback—one that might be difficult to absorb if no buyers step in.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!