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16.03.2020 11:36
FED puts zero: monetary papyrus against the virus
Europe has become the epicentre of the pandemic, in fact, Shengen was cancelled, it is difficult to estimate the negative consequences in the average term even approximately. Unemployment growth is guaranteed, consumption reduction is expected to be at least 20%. Financial markets in permanent catas...
09.03.2020 12:07
No bottom or shore in sight: the markets are absolutely risk-off
Oil quotes at the minimum of February 2016. OPEC + not only did not reach agreement on an additional reduction in production, but also refused to extend the current quotas. Following the meeting, a document was signed on the continuation of cooperation under the Charter of Cooperation, but, since Ap...
02.03.2020 12:36
War of the worlds: viral crash-test – still not a disaster
Panic on the topic of the virus still seems excessive, but investors are beginning to consider not only the economic impact of the epidemic but the risk of losing trump in the presidential election in November, what causes global capital outflow from US assets. Capitalization of the US stock market ...
24.02.2020 12:29
To each his own: one − a virus, the other − a medicine
Fed The minutes of the meeting on January 29 turned out to be useless. The Federal Reserve is potentially ready for a policy change, that is, the likelihood of lower rates is lower than increases. The chorus of speeches by the Fed members was surprisingly well-coordinated: everyone is sure that...
17.02.2020 11:55
The market is actively ill: there is no immunity to risk yet
So … FRS Protocol, February 19 The January 29 document is hopelessly outdated even for analysts. The impact of the epidemic on the US economy could not be assessed before the release of statistics for February, and Powell’s position on the FRS's balance sheet was set out at a January press con...
10.02.2020 11:56
Non olet! … or virus doesn’t hinder markets
We review strictly the strongest factors: Pound The Briton continues to fall amid mutual threats between the EU and Britain on a post-Brexit deal. Britain is threatening to raise duties on imports of France's products and Germany's cars, Macron wants to tighten the EU's mandate for any trade d...
03.02.2020 11:54
«Free» Britain: victory or sentence?
The main theme of last week, of course, is British. Commemoratives in honour of Brexit were sold out in a matter of hours − the Royal Mint barely handled the orders. UK and EU begin to live separately, but a hangover after the festive banquet prevents assessing the prospects. Scottish nationalists...
27.01.2020 12:13
Epidemic is developing, but the market is still stable
Euro and ECB The ECB left the policy unchanged until the US presidential election in November, but a global review of the strategy has been announced. The press conference of Lagarde disappointed. The new head of the Central Bank is not an economist, perhaps that is why many questions were not ...
20.01.2020 13:14
Quid pro quo or speculation on someone else's optimism
Everything is fine in the USA − only the JOLTs vacancy report was very different from the rest of the statistics, hinting at a possible slowdown in the labour market. This means that in the absence of convincing evidence of the global economic recovery, the dollar will be in strong demand. USA ...
13.01.2020 11:29
All roads are slippery when there are no brakes
Iran The murdered General Suleimani remains a factor in pressure on markets: exporting countries loud in praises to him as a man who gave his life for oil, and the buying countries hate him for it. It is possible to consider the American impeachment as the root cause, but also the repartition o...