Miracles of Asian Diplomacy

EUR/USD

Key zone: 1.1700 - 1.1750

Buy: 1.1770 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 1.1950-1.2050; StopLoss 1.1700

Sell: 1.1680 (on a pullback after a retest of 1.1750) ; target 1.1500; StopLoss 1.1750

This is the first such visit in six years, yet the benefits for both sides remain unclear. One thing is evident: Beijing and Washington are accelerating talks on a trade agreement after a phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump. Xi was the first to speak publicly after the rendezvous, and his message can be summarized in a few points:

• Negotiations were positive and constructive.
• China’s position on TikTok was presented and accepted by the U.S.
• Chinese companies must be provided with an open and fair environment for their operations.

In other words—nothing specific, no aggressive negativity, and no binding promises.

Trump described the conversation as “very productive and good,” expressing confidence that a face-to-face meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea, starting October 31, will resolve all key issues. He did not specify what those problems were.

The U.S. clearly expects a “multi-billion payout” from investors for the opportunity to make a deal with China, particularly concerning TikTok. Evidently, this means direct White House interference in corporate negotiations—a practice long normalized in the U.S. Trump labeled the forthcoming compensation “huge.”

Beijing’s stance is pragmatic and tough: the U.S. must refrain from unilateral trade restrictions to avoid undermining the results of bilateral consultations. Xi Jinping stressed that any TikTok deal must consider the interests of both parties, comply with market principles, and adhere to PRC law. China insists on non-discriminatory conditions for Chinese investors. Earlier, Trump extended the deadline for selling TikTok’s U.S. division to December 16, pushing back the original September 17 date. Effectively, the platform’s fate has been up for grabs for over a year.

On Sunday, a group of U.S. lawmakers arrived in Beijing to “stabilize relations,” marking the first such visit since 2019. The delegation is led by Democrat Adam Smith, former chair of the House Armed Services Committee, overseeing the Pentagon and U.S. Armed Forces. Taiwan seems the hottest topic, but no details of the planned discussions were disclosed. The visit looks like a clever diplomatic maneuver—clearly not in Trump’s favor.

Meanwhile, signals from Europe tell a different story. European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU will follow its own interests and will not automatically copy U.S. initiatives imposing 100% tariffs against India and China.

At present, several fundamental pressures are weighing on the dollar: the U.S. demands financial compensation over TikTok, China insists on equal footing, and Europe seeks independence. For traders, this means only one thing: the market will react to each new step, while the uncertainty around the deal fuels volatility.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!