Golden PUMP continues

XAU/USD

Key zone: 3,800.00 - 3,950.00

Buy: 3,900.00(after retest of 3,800 level) ; target 4,100-4,150; StopLoss 3,820.00

Sell: 3,750.00 (on a strong negative foundation); target 3,600-3,550; StopLoss 3,820.00

The incredible rally in gold, fueled by instability from trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and shutdown fears in the U.S., raises entirely justified concerns among major investors. New tactics and hedging schemes are needed.

The official peg of stablecoins to the U.S. dollar makes crypto investments equivalent to investing in other American products, such as Treasuries or S&P 500 equities.

• Futures imply a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% chance of another move in December.
• President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs starting October 1 on pharmaceutical imports, trucks, and furniture added fresh uncertainty to global supply chains.
• The looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown adds another layer of risk, strengthening the case for hedging with gold.

Reminder: major financial players never keep capital in a single asset. Even if you are allied with the U.S., it is not in your interest to hold everything in dollars. Now, thanks to the GENIUS Act, cryptocurrencies are (effectively) an American asset. This is why liquidity continues to flow into non-dollar alternatives — EUR, BTC, Dow Jones.

If you are against the U.S. (regardless of the motive), the diversification problem becomes even more pressing. This is one of the less obvious reasons why central banks, particularly China, are aggressively buying gold.

Despite positive expectations for the U.S. economy, the USD being capped around 98.00/60 limits further upside, which also supports capital flows into gold. Pressure on the dollar persists amid a cooling labor market and modest U.S. inflation.

Gold has entered a decisive phase, where technical and macroeconomic forces are aligning.

Additional catalysts are due this week. U.S. job openings data, ISM manufacturing, and September’s NFP will shape policy outlooks.

Weaker labor data will reinforce expectations for another rate cut, likely driving gold higher. Conversely, stronger data could temporarily slow momentum, consolidating prices around $3,730–$3,760 before buyers re-emerge.

Holding above $3,800 strengthens chances for a move toward $3,900 and potentially $4,000. Speculators are back to their old playbook: small buyers continuously spark fresh waves of interest in gold’s bullish impulses. If economic surprises don’t derail expectations of monetary easing, corrections will remain non-critical — and attract new buyers.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!