Gold: no one is willing to take risks

XAU/USD

Key zone: 4,000.00- 4,200.00

Buy: 4,200.00 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 4,400-4,450; StopLoss 4,120.00

Sell: 4,000.00 (on a confident breakout of the 4.100 level); target 3,850-3,700; StopLoss 4,080.00

The yellow metal continues to trade with elevated volatility. Its recent “weakness” is driven by inconsistent messaging from the Federal Reserve. Statements by Williams that policy remains “restrictive” prompted speculation about an imminent pivot, but later comments from Fed officials in Chicago and Cleveland cooled expectations of near-term easing.

Spot gold fell 0.3%, and December COMEX futures declined 0.7% to $4,052.40. The dollar’s strength limited gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, while shifting expectations around rate cuts added uncertainty.

Progress toward sustained gold appreciation remains constrained by periodic improvements in risk sentiment and renewed hopes for peace talks in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which reduce demand for safe-haven assets.

This internal policy divergence forces traders to act cautiously ahead of key macroeconomic data releases — including PPI (expected +0.3% m/m), retail sales forecast (+0.4%), and the core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

These delayed data releases will dictate the tone of gold trading in December.

Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast by 2.3% to $2,750 and increased its long-term projection to $3,000–5,000, citing macroeconomic imbalances and underinvestment in mining. The bank listed five long-term drivers of growth: a persistent US fiscal deficit, geopolitical fragmentation, limited new exploration, continued central-bank accumulation, and weakening global growth prospects.

Despite volatility, central-bank purchases rose 2.1% in Q3, with China, India, and Turkey increasing reserves. Physical demand in Asia and the Middle East remains firm, particularly due to rising retail demand in the UAE, where premiums average around $18 above spot. These flows helped stabilize XAU/USD near $4,000 despite speculative selling.

Technically, gold is consolidating above the rising-trend support near $4,000, and the price compression signals energy building for a breakout. A close below $3,960 could trigger a retest of $3,800, while reclaiming $4,200 opens the path to $4,400. Gold futures trading volume has declined nearly 17% over two weeks, indicating trader indecision ahead of Thanksgiving week.

The short-term outlook remains neutral, with an expected range of $3,960–4,120. Medium-term forecasts are turning bullish, with targets of $4,400–4,600, as the Fed is expected to begin easing in 2026. Long-term positioning remains a strong buy below $4,000, consistent with the recovery of macro-liquidity. The current consolidation phase is viewed as preparation for the next upward wave once rate clarity improves.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!