Gold: Buy While the Market Panics

XAU/USD

Key zone: 3,900.00 - 4,000.00

Buy: 4,000.00 (on a strong positive foundation); target 4,150-4,200; StopLoss 3,920.00

Sell: 3,900.00 (after a retest of the 3.950 level); target 3,750-3700; StopLoss 3,980.00

Investors, seeking refuge from economic and political uncertainty, continue to drive strong demand for gold. Currently, XAU/USD is stabilizing near record highs, yet the market behaves as if the $4,000 barrier has already been broken.

The foundation of the current gold rally is a mix of economic panic, dovish monetary expectations, Trump’s tariff aggression, and large-scale central bank purchases — all intertwined factors fueling demand. Political instability in France and Japan has further heightened short-term risk sentiment.

Momentum is also supported by the growing inflow of capital into physically backed gold ETFs. According to the WGC, global demand for gold ETFs between January and September rose to 587.8 tons, compared to a net outflow of 6.8 tons for the entire year of 2024.

Yesterday, large “bears” were expecting the release of China’s official gold reserve data, but no surprises occurred — Beijing continues to accumulate gold, with reserves exceeding $253.84 million (+29.45 month-over-month) at the end of September.

Volatility across all gold-linked assets may increase in the short term as investors rebalance portfolios ahead of the corporate earnings season and key macroeconomic releases. A sharper move in Treasury yields and/or resolution of the US government shutdown could trigger profit-taking. However, most market participants view any pullback as temporary within the broader bullish trend — not only for gold but also for its “younger brother,” silver.

Silver’s rally is driven by similar fundamentals — safe-haven demand, strong industrial consumption, and tight spot market conditions. Moreover, the US inclusion of silver on its list of critical minerals has fueled speculation over potential tariffs, attracting further market attention.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices hold above $3,800. A breakout above the psychological level of $3,900 in XAU/USD has been seen as a new trigger for buyers. A sustained move beyond $4,000 opens the path toward $4,100–4,200, where short-term options and large pending orders are already accumulating.

Even with possible corrections, the fundamental backdrop still favors gold. Trading pullbacks may be reasonable only in the short term — with strict risk management.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!