Bitcoin falls, but no panic
#BTCUSD
Key zone: 110,000 - 114,000
Buy: 115,000 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 117,500-120,000; StopLoss 113,500
Sell: 110,000 (after a retest of the 112,500 level) ; target 107,500-105,000; StopLoss 111,500
Such strong dependence on the traditional market has not been seen in digital assets for a long time. Crypto continues to decline: investors are moving capital from depreciating tokens into gold, while speculators increase the volume of pending orders on both sides of the market.
Major players are focused on information from Jackson Hole. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 46, although sentiment stays unstable. The news background is filled with speculation about market manipulation, and liquidity failures on exchanges draw close attention.
This week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched the second phase of the “crypto sprint” initiative, in which it asks the industry to contribute to developing rules for leveraged or margin trading. This step follows the recommendations of Trump’s working group on digital assets and highlights the growing attention of regulators to this sector.
Against this backdrop, one “tricky” piece of news went unnoticed:
The US Treasury has just bought back its own debt worth $4 billion, one of the largest buybacks in history. Such operations are carried out to “optimize the structure” of public debt, when old Treasuries are replaced with new T-bills. This helps improve the yield curve, reduce spreads, and increase confidence in the government debt market.
For the US, $4 billion is a small amount, but it signals a serious problem. The current overheated market decided that the US Treasury’s debt situation is so bad that it is forced to replace old debt with new, even without excess liquidity. The new T-bills will be financed from other sources and will compete more aggressively with stocks and crypto for capital.
Thus, by replacing Treasury obligations with short-term T-bills, the US Treasury increases this competition.
Now this is a negative signal for the stock market and crypto.
Powell’s speech at the Fed summit (clearly the last of his career!) is bound to provoke volatility: a hawkish tone could trigger the next wave of decline, while overly optimistic remarks could restore buying interest.
At the moment, BTC/USD is trying to hold the $113,000 level, while Ethereum is testing support around $4,280; volatility remains the main theme. The risk of opening new positions is very high, and speculators may be extremely active. Over the weekend, the market may show unusual liquidity and attempts to adjust the price to more justified levels before the new week opens.
So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.
Profits to y’all!
