Dollar: a Global Threat to Crypto

#BTCUSD

Key zone: 115,000 - 118,000

Buy: 119,200 (after correction and breakdown of 118,000); target 121,500-122,000; StopLoss 118,200

Sell: 115,000 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 112,500-111,500; StopLoss 115,800

BTC is stuck in the $116000–120000 range. Ethereum is also losing momentum near the psychological $4000 level, though chances of reaching new highs remain.

Both holders like Strategy and SharpLink Gaming, and major institutional investors continue raising funds to buy BTC and ETH. For example, total daily net inflow into ETH ETFs amounts to $218.64 million – big capital is confident in long-term positive momentum. Still, caution is key in the short term.

Crypto reacts weakly to good news, including crypto regulation liberalization in the US. Lack of growth on good news is a classic sign of a bull market ending.

But it’s not that simple for crypto.

The main risk now lies with the dollar: retail traders are opening massive short positions, betting on a weakening greenback. According to CFTC data, such positions are at extreme levels.

The market is vulnerable to a short squeeze. If the dollar even speculatively rises, traders will be forced to exit losing trades en masse. This could trigger a flight from risk assets, including crypto. So, a BTC drop to test support at $110000 is highly likely — potentially a gap move without significant volume.

Remember the fast, uninterrupted jump from $108K to $117K between July 8–11? And then the $120K test followed. A fast-growth zone formed on the chart without strong support — a price "pocket" from $115000 to $110000. It will almost certainly be filled before the dollar’s role in the next rally is reassessed.

If you still want to buy — choose ETH. Amid Trump tariff issues, Ethereum shows uncharacteristic behavior for a volatile asset – it stabilizes when the market loses confidence.

As long as price holds above the breakout zone at $3750, large buyers won’t take profit. The next key resistance level is $4100. As long as ETH stays above $3700, it has a solid chance to keep rising. Consolidation under $4000 looks constructive, though rising tariff tensions in August may add volatility — but the overall move is still upward.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!