Vitol and Trafigura: the new pirates of the Caribbean

XBR/USD

Key zone: 65.00-66.20

Buy: 66.50(on strong positive fundamentals); target 68.50-69.50; StopLoss 65.80

Sell: 64.50(on a confident breakout of the 65.00 level); target 63.00-61.50; StopLoss 65.20

Trump considers control over the sale of Venezuelan oil a political and economic victory for the United States. Now exports must be urgently resumed: production has fallen due to restrictions, and storage facilities remain overcrowded.

To quickly and profitably sell still-sanctioned oil worth several billion dollars, the U.S. issued special licenses to Vitol Group and Trafigura Group.

These very networks of traders, logisticians, and analysts have repeatedly allowed profits to be extracted during periods of geopolitical crises. Last year, Vitol’s revenue reached $505 bn. Today Vitol and Trafigura daily operate oil volumes comparable to the combined consumption of Japan, Germany, India, and Mexico.

Let us recall:

Over the past 10 years, U.S. sanctions against oil from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran forced out Western traders and oil logistics, and this niche was quickly occupied by Asian buyers who received the сырье at significant discounts.

Heavy Venezuelan oil was sold to China at a discount of more than $10 to Brent on delivery terms. This grade — Merey — is distinguished by high density and is difficult to process: not all refineries are able to work with such feedstock.

Thus, Trump’s successful “military operation” gives Vitol and Trafigura the opportunity to restore their positions in the market.

The two companies received contracts with Petroleos de Venezuela SA to sell from 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. Considering that the purchase price from PDVSA is approximately $15 below Brent, such deals provide a chance for serious profit.

The first batch of oil purchased by Vitol and Trafigura arrived at the oil terminal on the island of Bullen Bay on January 18. Bullen Bay will become the hub for storage and distribution of the trophy crude, since most U.S. ports cannot receive supertankers with capacity of over 1 million barrels.

It is noteworthy that these tankers were ready for shipment even before Donny’s widely publicized meeting with oil company executives. This is understandable — Vitol and Trafigura are among the TOP-10 sources of donations to Trump’s campaign.

• John Addison, senior trader at Vitol, donated $5 million in October 2024 to Maga Inc, which supported Trump’s campaign, and more than $1 million to two other projects linked to the Trump family. As a result, Vitol received the first contract for the sale of Venezuelan oil.
• Trafigura, according to OpenSecrets, spent $525k on lobbying in the U.S. in 2024–2025 — and received the second contract worth $250 million.

The return of Vitol and Trafigura to Venezuela occurred after scandalous investigations, during which the companies had to admit guilt in corruption and bribery when concluding contracts with state oil companies in South America. It is not surprising that such a blatant fact of Trump’s protectionism caused outrage among Democratic senators.

By the way, the licenses issued to “Trump’s friends” allow operations not only with Venezuelan oil, but also with other commodities, including metals and minerals. This potentially opens the way for exports of gold or aluminum, while traders are free to send the raw materials to any markets.

At the moment, the companies are studying buyer interest in China and India, offering Asian clients a discount of $5–8 per barrel to Brent. Under such a scheme of managing “profit chances,” the opportunities for market manipulation are extremely high.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!