Gold: The American Gambit

#XAUUSD

Key zone: 3,330.00 - 3,380.00

Buy: 3,375.00 (after a retracement to 3.350); target 3,550.00; StopLoss 3,300.00

Sell: 3,300.00 (on a strong negative foundation); target 3,100.00; StopLoss 3,375.00

The wild scale of the new US tariffs on all Swiss imports came as an economic and diplomatic shock. The decision was triggered by a small sector at the center of the global gold market. The SNB reiterated that excessive gold exports to the US should not be seen as a negative factor for bilateral trade relations.

Reminder:

Switzerland is the world’s largest gold refining hub due to its high standards in quality and confidentiality. The precious metal constantly flows in and out of the country, from mines in South America and Africa to banks in London and New York. Gold bars are Switzerland’s most expensive export product.

There are only five companies in Switzerland producing investment-grade gold. While the exchange price reaches $3,500 and more, this business earns just a few dollars from refining a single bar. Yet these gold flows cause significant fluctuations in the country’s trade balance.

Trump aims to reduce the trade deficit, but record gold bar exports (over $36 billion) accounted for more than 60% of Switzerland’s trade surplus with the US. In Q1, the gold import surge to the US was driven by profitable transatlantic arbitrage, fueled by fears that the precious metal might fall under new tariffs.

To ship gold to New York, European traders had to recast 400-ounce London bars into 1 kg or 100-ounce bars required by the US Comex exchange. This made Swiss refineries a critical node in the arbitrage chain.

After investment gold was exempted from Trump’s tariffs, most of the bars returned “home” — net gold inflow to Switzerland exceeded $1 billion, but no one considered these details while setting new tariff policies. The impression of the trade surplus volume remains negative for the US.

So Swiss experts, diplomats, and politicians face a serious fight for a reasonable resolution to the issue.

The long-term gold chart still looks quite optimistic, but D1–W1 shows strong overbought conditions. A solid political catalyst is needed for confident growth above $3,400, while a move below $3,300 would signal a new reversal. Trading interest is building on both sides of the market, yet both bulls and bears lack conviction.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!