BTC: Where to expect the next bottom?

BTC/USD

Key zone: 65,000 - 68,000

Buy: 68,500 (on a confident breakout of the 67,500 level) ; target 71,500; StopLoss 67,500

Sell: 65,000 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 63,000-61,500; StopLoss 66,000

No one knows the exact answer to this question. However, the dynamics of cryptocurrencies can be assessed through a set of key factors that shape market pricing.

So:

Political timing

For Trump, it is critically important to approach the November elections to the Senate and House of Representatives with a positive background in financial markets — and especially in crypto. A strong correction is needed to offset the oversold market, and if all the negative market sentiment can be blamed on the outgoing Jerome Powell — that would be a jackpot.

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The FOMC meeting calendar now works as a volatility trigger. The current state of the economy may force the regulator to ease monetary policy even with the current composition of the Fed. The nearest key dates are March 18 and April 29.

On May 15, 2026, Powell’s formal departure and the appointment of Kevin Warsh are scheduled. Even with possible procedural delays, the very fact of leadership change at the Fed can affect market expectations.

In summer 2026, the active phase of the election campaign will begin, and the Republican White House administration will desperately need positive market dynamics. June 17, 2026 may become the first meeting under the new chairman, automatically creating an advance optimism effect. All subsequent meetings before the elections — July 29, September 16, and October 28 — will also be potential points of intense speculation.

Inflation

This is the main obstacle to any positive scenario. At the moment, Trump is putting pressure on statistical agencies, particularly the BLS. However, as approval ratings decline, political control weakens. If inflation indicators start rising, even the new Fed chair will not be able to initiate rate cuts. Therefore, the key benchmarks remain regular releases of CPI, PPI, and PCE data.

Retail capital

Retail investors traditionally act as a source of liquidity for large capital. Rising prices are used by big players to exit into cash at the expense of retail demand. Therefore, sustainable bull cycles are possible only if private investors have sufficient free capital to support demand over a long period. Given the scale of losses in 2025–2026, the crypto market may fail to show a full recovery even if the US stock market resumes growth. An alternative could be administrative stimulus, including reallocating budget resources into the crypto sector.

Reputational damage

After the crash of October 11, 2025, the crypto market is again perceived as a high-risk speculative asset. However, aggressive promotion through social media can relatively quickly restart speculative interest. By summer 2026, the mass audience may once again believe in the image of a “crypto president” and trigger a new growth wave.

Large capital factor

The entry of pension funds via ETFs increases systemic risk: now not only retail traders but also large institutional players will speculate. This deepens corrections, although after current losses fund managers are unlikely to actively rebuild crypto positions.

Reminder: from a crypto market perspective, the bearish trend started recently, and there are no strong reversal signals — neither fundamental nor technical.

We believe that a classic V-shaped recovery before summer is unlikely. There will be a series of technical rebounds driven by short covering and short squeezes. The moves may be strong (30–40%) and extended over time, but technically these are standard “bull traps”.

If you plan to trade BTC on the spot market, positions should be built gradually with trailing stop losses, as reliable technical levels are hard to define right now. At this stage, such levels can be considered $60,000, $57,500, $52,500, $50,000, and $47,500 — but there must always be room for a quick upside reversal. A new bull market will form after a breakout above $70,000.

The distance between levels should be taken with a margin, and your strategy should be рассчитана at least a couple of months ahead.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!