Bitcoin gets a new chance

BTC/USD

Key zone: 75,000 - 78,300

Buy: 78,500 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 81,500-83,500; StopLoss 77,500

Sell: 74,500 (on a decisive break above the 75,000 level) ; target 70,000-68,500; StopLoss 75,500

The crypto market increased its capitalization by 1.29% over the past 24 hours (to $2.57T) amid new all-time highs in the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices. In addition, the strengthening of the Japanese yen triggered a decline in the dollar index, lowering the comparison base.

At the moment, the top gainers are Zcash (+5%), Dash (+4.8%), and Aptos (+3.4%). The underperformers among major coins are Theta (−1%), Cosmos (−1.4%), and NEAR (−1.4%).

Ethereum remains more cautious and is not ready to follow its “big brother” Bitcoin. In recent weeks, the price has been unable to break the strong resistance at $2500. This can be seen as a signal of selling dominance both in ETH and in the altcoin market overall.

• From a seasonality perspective, May is considered relatively favorable for Bitcoin. Over the past 15 years, BTC has ended this month with gains nine times and declines six times. The average gain was 26.5%, while the average decline was 14.5%.
• The April rally of the leading cryptocurrency from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures — spot demand remained in negative territory. As a result, BTC gained 12.2% in April, marking the strongest growth over the past 12 months. Before that, in March, BTC showed a modest increase (+2%) after five months of decline.
• Bloomberg analysts described this as a predictable outcome of a rally primarily driven by futures.

A total of 11 indicators signal the best opportunity to buy Bitcoin in the past five years — the last time such a technical setup appeared was in Q4 2022.

However, there is an additional factor that is not visible on the spot market but globally pressures the price.

The upward momentum of BTC is being constrained by positions of market participants on the Deribit exchange, Bloomberg notes. Around the $80K level, call options expiring in May and June totaling $1.5 billion are concentrated. In such conditions, market makers are forced to sell the asset as the price rises in order to hedge risks.

The divergence between rising prices and declining spot interest indicates the speculative nature of the move.

Recall: in a bullish trend, overbought conditions signal market strength rather than an imminent collapse. If the price holds at current levels despite resistance, it will confirm the beginning of a new growth phase.

At the moment, BTC is attempting to move above $77,000, having received buyer support on a pullback to the critical $77,000 zone, but the triggering of buyers’ StopLosses was too rapid. Buying dominance remains unstable, as the last strong resistance in the $80,000 zone has not yet been broken.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!