SpaceX vs. Bitcoin: how much is the future worth?

Two bets the market is pricing almost blindly

SP500

Key zone: 7,700 - 7,750

Buy: 7,780 (on a strong positive foundation); target 7,900-8,050; StopLoss 7,720

Sell: 7,650 (following a decisive break above 7,700); target 7,500-7,350; StopLoss 7,720

One participant has cash, contracts, and Starlink. The other has a fixed supply of 21 million virtual coins. But the price of both today is determined by the same thing: how strongly investors believe in the future envisioned by these business ideas.

SpaceX and Bitcoin sit on opposite sides of the financial system, but the market increasingly views them through the same investment lens. In both cases, current value largely depends on how viable the future market, which is only now beginning to take shape, ultimately proves to be.

Any economist will tell you that directly comparing SpaceX with Bitcoin is inappropriate: SpaceX is an operating company with revenue, assets, customers, and government contracts, while Bitcoin generates no cash flow at all.

But it is precisely this difference that makes the comparison interesting.

A reminder:

Following its IPO in June, SpaceX became a public company. The offering was priced at $135 per share, and assuming full exercise of the underwriters’ option, the company raised about $85.7 billion. Even before the IPO, Reuters reported investor orders of more than $250 billion against an offering of $75 billion. By the end of September, SpaceX’s market capitalization had reached approximately $2.05 trillion, while the shares closed at around $150.86.

Now the key question arises: what future cash flows must justify that $2 trillion?

In Q2 2026, SpaceX generated $7.8 billion in revenue, nearly double the $4.1 billion recorded a year earlier. Starlink accounted for more than half of revenue, while revenue from the AI business grew even faster. At the same time, the operating loss narrowed to $143 million.

The company is simultaneously developing:

  • Starlink;
  • space launches;
  • government space and defense contracts;
  • Starship;
  • AI infrastructure;
  • computing in space.

SpaceX’s economic thesis looks roughly like this:

technological breakthrough → lower costs → market expansion → higher demand → new cash flows.

In other words, investors have very real metrics they can use as a starting point.

But what happens if Starship really does make orbital launches significantly cheaper? How much will orbital AI infrastructure be worth? What share of that market will SpaceX capture?

For now, the answers to these questions cannot be verified through a conventional earnings report.

Bitcoin is much further removed from traditional valuation.

It has no revenue, earnings, dividends, or corporate management. You cannot build a traditional DCF and derive fundamental value from future cash flows.

Instead, investors evaluate something else:

limited supply → growing adoption → competition for coins → rising value of a scarce asset.

The maximum number of Bitcoin is capped at approximately 21 million coins, while the issuance schedule is predetermined by the protocol. An increase in demand does not lead to a proportional increase in supply, as it would with an ordinary commodity or a company’s shares.

The main risk: scarcity by itself does not create value. Value emerges only if a sufficiently large number of market participants consider that scarcity valuable. And it is impossible to estimate how much capital will be willing to compete for the limited supply of BTC in the future.

This is where the comparison becomes truly interesting.

But there is one common variable: both investment stories depend on the same factor — the scale of future demand. All hopes for a positive outcome will collapse if:

  • Starlink, AI, and SpaceX’s space infrastructure fail to create a sufficiently large market, making the enormous current market capitalization much harder to justify.
  • Bitcoin does not become significantly more sought after as a store of value, in which case limited supply alone does not guarantee a high price.

Therefore, neither story can be evaluated solely on the basis of the current state of the business or network.

And What Is the Result?

SpaceX and Bitcoin really can be compared — but not as identical assets.

The investor is effectively buying an option on the future. The only difference is that with SpaceX, this option is embedded in an operating business with revenue, while with Bitcoin it is embedded in a global monetary network with a predetermined supply cap. The market has already shown how much it is willing to pay for such stories.

Investor appetite for these types of assets remains high in 2026. And this is exactly where the elegant analogy ends and the real assessment of risk begins.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!