Bitcoin feeds on oil

Billions flow into btc on oil price dynamics

BTC/USD

Key zone: 70,000 - 72,500

Buy: 73,500 (after retesting 71,500) ; target 78,500-80,000; StopLoss 72,500

Sell: 70,000 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 65,500-63,500; StopLoss 71,000

A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East conflict led to a technical correction in oil prices below $100 per barrel, which triggered a recovery in Bitcoin from a recent low of $67,000 to $73,000.

According to CryptoQuant, trading volume on crypto exchanges has fallen by 48% over five months. The March figure became the lowest since October 2024. The perpetual futures market dominates the trading structure: $3.5 trillion versus $0.8 trillion on the spot market — more than a fourfold difference.

Second-tier exchanges (MEXC, Bybit, Gate, Crypto.com) have increased their presence in spot volumes; however, none of them individually comes close to the scale of Binance. This highlights intensifying competition without meaningful consolidation of market leadership.

If oil prices remain at lower levels, the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts increases, which could potentially help BTC break through the critical $80,000 zone.

Recall:

  • A 15–16% decline in oil prices reduces inflationary pressure and gives central banks more room to ease monetary policy.
  • Lower interest rates are traditionally favorable for Bitcoin, as it does not generate yield and competes with bonds.
  • Currently, around $6 billion in short positions are concentrated in Bitcoin within the $72,200–$73,500 range.
  • Approximately $6 billion in short positions may trigger a short squeeze in case of an upward breakout.

However, the ceasefire appears fragile. Bitcoin is cautiously testing new local highs.

Geopolitical uncertainty is driving capital flows. As long as oil remains an unpredictable factor, investors increasingly turn to Bitcoin as an alternative asset amid uncertainty around interest rates and inflation.

At any moment, U.S. geopolitical policy may shift back to threats, triggering a market sell-off. Therefore, current buying is more hype-driven rather than a genuine return of large players.

It is precisely at such moments that intense market cleansing occurs, accompanied by liquidations and panic selling, which later becomes the starting point for a new upward trend.

As for real buying, the bottom in Bitcoin has not yet been reached.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!