A fresh trap for veteran bulls

NQ100

Key zone: 29,300 -29,800

Buy: 30,000(on strong positive fundamentals); target 31,500; StopLoss 29,500

Sell: 29,000 (on a pullback following a retest of 29,500); target 27,500; StopLoss 29,400

Amazon's earnings report will test the resilience of the AI boom, Apple's will gauge the strength of consumer demand, and Coinbase's will reveal the cryptocurrency market's actual profitability. The three reports could trigger a repricing of technology stocks.

Today, October 29, after the U.S. stock market closes, Amazon and Coinbase will release their third-quarter financial results. Apple will provide an additional signal on consumer demand on November 2. AAPL represents the third component of a broader market scenario, but with a separate catalyst occurring at a different time.

The main risk lies in inflated investor expectations and the varying sensitivity of assets to macroeconomic and corporate events. Amazon and Apple may move in line with the Nasdaq 100, but their own earnings reports could change the index's direction.

A quick recap:

A sharp decline does not require weak earnings results. Companies that beat analysts' forecasts can still face selling pressure if their guidance for the following quarter is not strong enough to justify current valuations. For the Nasdaq 100, it is particularly important whether Amazon and Apple can demonstrate resilient earnings and demand. The cryptocurrency market views Coinbase's results as an indicator of trading activity, institutional business performance, and the monetization of digital assets.

Amazon: The Market Demands Returns on AI Investment

Revenue is expected to reach $202.2–202.3 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 12.2–12.3%. The EPS forecast stands at $1.96–1.97. According to IG estimates based on LSEG data, AWS revenue should reach $45.6 billion, while Amazon's EBITDA is expected to total $53.6 billion.

The fourth quarter is traditionally important for Amazon because of holiday sales. Therefore, even a third-quarter consensus beat may prove insufficient if the company provides weak revenue or operating income guidance for the end of the year.

Coinbase: Trading Volumes Are the Key

Consensus estimates point to quarterly revenue of approximately $1.21 billion and a loss of around $0.23 per share. A year earlier, the company earned $1.44 per share on revenue of $1.87 billion.

What would constitute a positive surprise?

• Revenue significantly above $1.21 billion.
• Growth in subscription and services revenue.
• Lower operating expenses relative to revenue.

Apple: Testing the Resilience of Consumer Demand

The earnings release is scheduled for November 2. Consensus estimates call for revenue of approximately $113.38 billion and EPS of around $1.98. Expected revenue growth from $102.47 billion a year earlier is approximately 10.65%.

For Apple, iPhone demand remains the most important indicator. According to UBS estimates, segment revenue could reach approximately $56 billion, compared with market consensus of $56.2 billion.

Four combinations of results are particularly significant.

• Strong Amazon + strong Apple. Such an outcome would confirm the resilience of both corporate investment and consumer demand. This would be a potentially positive combination for the Nasdaq 100, especially if Treasury yields do not rise sharply.
• Strong Amazon + weak Apple. The market could accelerate capital rotation toward cloud computing and AI infrastructure while reducing positions in companies dependent on consumer spending.
• Weak Amazon + strong Coinbase. This could cause COIN to diverge from the broader technology index. However, the resilience of the cryptocurrency sector will depend on Bitcoin's own price dynamics and liquidity, not solely on the exchange's results.
• Weak Amazon, Apple, and Coinbase. A combination of weak demand, doubts about AI investment returns, and declining cryptocurrency activity would increase the risk of simultaneous position reductions across risk assets.

So What Is the Outcome?

Markets are testing not earnings alone, but the stability of business models.

For the Nasdaq 100, the key question is whether Amazon and Apple can confirm resilient earnings and demand. For the cryptocurrency market, Coinbase's results will serve as an indicator of trading activity, institutional business performance, and digital asset monetization.

A positive surprise relative to consensus does not automatically constitute a buy signal. The market's reaction following earnings releases needs confirmation from management guidance, trading volume, relative stock strength, and the response of related markets.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!