Is crypto season returning?

Is it worth buying bitcoin now?

BTC/USD

Key zone: 76,000 - 78,500

Buy: 80,000 (on a confident break above 78,500); target 83,500-86,000; StopLoss 79,000

Sell: 75,000 (on strong negative fundamentals) ; target 71,500; StopLoss 76,000

In August, the leading cryptocurrency rose by almost 25% — its most productive month since November 2024. Part of this momentum was lost amid the settlement of large options positions, and BTC/USD is now stuck in a range between $75,000 and $80,000. But Bitcoin’s price increase does not necessarily mean the full-fledged return of a confident bull market.

A reminder:

In October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 and then lost more than half of its value during the subsequent decline. The rebound from the June low near $59,000 briefly pushed the price above $82,000 in early September, marking an impressive reversal after a brutal bear market.

Traditionally, at the start of altcoin season, Bitcoin is the first to push the market higher. When investors become convinced that the rally has the potential to continue, part of the trading volume moves into Ethereum, then into Ripple, Solana, and smaller tokens. It is still too early to declare the return of a bull market, as the fundamental environment is missing several factors.

The duration of a bear market after another halving cycle, during which the issuance of new BTC is cut in half to maintain scarcity, usually ranges from 376 to 410 days (390 on average). In other words, judging by price history, we should now be close to the bottom of the downtrend and the beginning of a bull market.

But this time, it appears that the bottom was reached much earlier. Bulls became more active not only because of speculative leverage, but also because spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted around $3.5 billion in August. The largest amount of capital went into Bitcoin, but Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid also attracted funds.

If the rally in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other large-cap tokens continues, capital will begin flowing into increasingly speculative assets — and developments could then unfold rapidly.

Institutional capital is returning to crypto;
Expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy and government debt have changed;
There is a chance of clearer rules for regulating digital assets in the U.S.

The Fed remains a serious risk to the current recovery, so BTC has not yet been able to confidently break through the $80,000 zone.

And What Is the Result?

Signals to watch:

Bitcoin dominance: a sustained decline from current levels would indicate capital flowing into other segments of the market. This indicator currently stands at around 59%, while it should be approximately 50% or lower.

ETH/BTC ratio: further strengthening of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin would provide additional evidence of capital rotation. Currently, one ETH costs around 0.032 BTC compared with 0.026 in June — a positive trend for ETH. The ratio has risen by 30% since June, so another 15–20% jump would confirm a broader reversal in the crypto market.
BlockchainCenter’s Altcoin Season Index — for an altcoin season, at least 75% of the 50 largest eligible cryptocurrencies need to deliver higher returns than BTC over the previous 90 days. At present, this index stands at just 27.
Inflows of new capital into ETFs and investment products.
Market breadth: we need to look for growth spreading beyond a few popular tokens. Confident bull markets are usually characterized by increasingly broad participation.

This does not guarantee the arrival of altcoin season, but this is precisely the kind of dynamics traders expect to see before it begins. Not all conditions have been met yet. BTC still accounts for almost 60% of the crypto market, but perhaps the real turning point has already passed.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!