BTC + Gold: a new macro trend or a market anomaly?

BTC/USD

Key zone: 94,000 - 97,000

Buy: 97,500 (on strong positive fundamentals) ; target 100,000-102,500; StopLoss 96,500

Sell: 93,500 (on a pullback after retesting the 96,000 level) ; target 90,000-85,500; StopLoss 94,500

It is rare for assets classified as “digital risk,” “safe haven,” and the equity market to rise simultaneously, yet this is exactly what we are observing now. Global markets are experiencing an unusual phenomenon: gold, cryptocurrencies, and even equities are moving within the same trend. This is not merely a matter of market sentiment, but rather a reflection of deep structural changes in trust toward fiat currencies and global financial systems.

This synchronicity has sparked a new wave of debate: if BTC and gold are rising together, can Bitcoin be considered a safe-haven asset analogous to XAU?

Let us recall:

• In January 2026, gold broke a new all-time high above $4600 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and expectations of monetary policy easing.
• This rally has been driven primarily by capital inflows based on fundamental safe-haven demand: declining real yields, rising geopolitical risks, and continued accumulation of reserves by central banks.
• In 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility: local highs around ~$126,000, followed by deep corrections and consolidation within the ~$80–90K range.

Yes, in mid-2025 Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 showed strong positive correlation; however, by year-end this correlation turned negative or close to zero.

Over short time horizons, BTC and gold may rise in parallel, but this does not necessarily imply coordinated movement — such coincidences are often explained by shared macro factors (for example, a weaker dollar or liquidity inflows), rather than direct interdependence.

As gold strengthens, investors begin reallocating capital into other assets, and Bitcoin — often referred to as “digital gold” — comes to the forefront. During such periods, gold tends to absorb more conservative investments, while Bitcoin attracts more speculative and institutional flows.

Gold retains its role as a core defensive asset, particularly if central banks continue to build reserves amid instability.

According to current forecasts, over the next 1.5 years the dynamics of gold and Bitcoin will be driven not by local factors, but by global variables: the interest-rate trajectory, the level of global liquidity, and demand for hedging instruments. Scenarios in which capital is partially reallocated in favor of Bitcoin remain relevant.

If financial regulators continue to encourage institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, BTC will gain additional fundamental grounds to strengthen its position — meaning that in 2026 the trajectories of gold and cryptocurrencies may begin to diverge.

And what is the result?

• Investors should view BTC and gold as separate assets, each fulfilling its own function under conditions of uncertainty. Whereas BTC was previously perceived mainly as a speculative asset, its role in hedging strategies has now increased noticeably.
• Bitcoin has not yet become a perfect safe-haven asset comparable to gold. Investors tend to use BTC as a secondary refuge once panic begins to subside or while waiting for liquidity conditions to normalize.
• Cryptocurrency remains a beta asset, sensitive to risk and liquidity, capable of rising alongside risk assets and gold only during recovery phases, not at the peak of market stress.
• This recognition is supported not only by market trends, but also by institutional behavior: rising volumes in spot Bitcoin ETFs, a growing share of long-term holders, and increasing interest in digital gold.

Bitcoin is unlikely to replace precious metals as the primary safe haven anytime soon, and betting heavily on it remains risky. However, the role of cryptocurrency in capital-protection strategies is strengthening, and with proper tactics, BTC can enhance the overall resilience of an investment portfolio.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!