Bitcoin is breaking away from its partners

BTC/USD

Key zone: 68,000 - 71,500

Buy: 72,500 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 76,500-80,000; StopLoss 71,500

Sell: 67,500 (after retesting 68,500) ; target 63,500; StopLoss 68,500

Bitcoin is increasingly distancing itself from the stock market and becoming less dependent on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index. The main cryptocurrency is losing its status as a risky asset and is increasingly being viewed as an investment instrument.

If previously BTC (and sometimes ETH) fell together with technology sector stocks, this model no longer works.

Previously, the high correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was explained by the fact that the same factors influenced the market simultaneously. These included Fed policy, liquidity inflows, interest in risky assets, and the behavior of large funds. Therefore, during that period BTC was traded not as a full-fledged trading asset, but rather as a kind of surrogate for the stock market.

It is generally believed that Bitcoin began moving separately from the stock market at the end of 2025, but the first signals of this reversal appeared back in the summer. If earlier BTC often moved in the same direction as stock indices (and not only the S&P 500), now crypto is rising even when stocks are falling.

The trend has strengthened in recent weeks, when traditional markets came under pressure.

The main reason for BTC breaking away from the S&P 500 is a change in the structure of demand.

• The main argument is demand from spot ETFs, through which institutional investors regularly enter BTC.
• The price of BTC is increasingly influenced by its own factors and the internal drivers of the crypto market. If for stocks the main benchmarks remain interest rates, corporate earnings, and the condition of the US economy, for BTC the behavior of large holders and overall demand for cryptocurrency are becoming increasingly important.
• Another factor is the market’s reaction to the military operation in Iran. After the conflict began on February 28, US indices moved into decline, while Bitcoin, on the contrary, tried to rise — unsuccessfully.
• If Bitcoin really begins to move away from the S&P 500, this also changes the approach to forecasting its price. If correlation continues to decline, BTC will form an independent trend and new analytical methods will have to be used.

So what is the result?

Market participants are now using crypto not only for speculation, but also for portfolio diversification. This changes the logic of the market itself: cryptocurrency behavior is increasingly determined by internal factors rather than the external background.

Predicting cryptocurrency movements solely through macroeconomics is becoming more difficult.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about a complete break with the S&P 500. Correlation may return during periods of strong macroeconomic shocks or changes in Fed policy.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!