Gold, S&P 500, BTC: a stress test of resilience

SP500

Key zone: 6,500 - 6,600

Buy: 6,650 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 6,800-6,850; StopLoss 6,580

Sell: 6,500 (after retesting the 6,550 level); target 6,300-6,250; StopLoss 6,570

Any classic trading textbook advises moving capital into “safe havens” such as gold during geopolitical and economic turmoil. Unfortunately, the old rules no longer work in today’s market.

Let’s recall several recent situations.

• A crisis of confidence in banks is the perfect moment for Bitcoin. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank forced investors to look for protection outside traditional accounts. While the S&P 500 index froze in ожидание, BTC surged by 35% in just two weeks, and gold gained 8%. The market hoped that central banks would stop raising rates in order to save the sinking banks.
• 2024 offered a different scenario. When the Bank of Japan raised rates, investors began massively closing cheap-yen strategies that had previously been used in large volumes to borrow money and buy stocks in other countries. On August 5, the Japanese market experienced its worst collapse in the last forty years, dragging the US and European stock markets down with it.
• At the same time, BTC did not fall, but it did not save the situation either — it rose by only 3%. When cash leaves the market and borrowing becomes more difficult, speculative assets usually lose their attractiveness. Gold rose by 9% on the idea of general fear and the need of large capital for proven protection.
• The second season of Trump’s trade wars became the main risk factor of 2025. The US stock market reacted painfully: investors began pricing in recession risks caused by higher prices and retaliatory sanctions. The dollar lost part of its position during this period, as the world began to fear financial isolation of the United States.
• Against this background, gold became the leader: the metal protects against the devaluation of money and benefits if central banks are forced to cut rates to support an economy slowing down due to trade restrictions.
• When it became clear that new tariffs could kill interest in the dollar, interest in BTC as an apolitical instrument increased: several months after the introduction of trade restrictions, crypto outperformed both gold and the stock market in terms of returns.
• 2026 brought the world another crisis, the first days of which the markets met in an active-defence mode: for example, gold, which had already updated its historical peak at $5513 back in January, immediately rose again after the start of military actions.
• The S&P 500 lost more than 4% in a month after the escalation, reflecting geopolitical fears and expensive energy. Bitcoin, on the contrary, showed moderate positive dynamics (+4%), partly thanks to the 24/7 market availability: traders were able to react quickly to changes in the news when traditional exchanges were closed.

This story is not over yet; it is too early to draw final conclusions, but some things can already be fixed.

• The market reacts not to the event itself, but to its economic consequences. If the problem is purely political and does not destroy global trade, prices normalize quickly. Local conflicts or terrorist attacks scare the market only in the first days, after which the S&P 500 index usually returns to a technically justified trend.
• The usual “safe assets” are not really safe: gold gives growth at the first moment, but its rally quickly dies when large capital and monetary factors enter the market. Example: 2022 and 2026, when regulators warned about the threat of inflation. However, during systemic banking crises the metal holds on the basis of trust in financial institutions.
• BTC is still listed in the anti-crisis arsenal, but at the critical moment it falls together with stocks — investors need cash and sell the most volatile assets. At the same time, it helps to survive the shock of rate cuts or the loss of confidence in traditional currencies.

Everything is simple — the market is both destroyed and saved by ordinary people. Gold, cryptocurrencies and stocks play different roles, but there is no perfect asset that can save capital from market crises — only cold logic and diversification.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!