Fed The minutes of the meeting on January 29 turned out to be useless. The Federal Reserve is potentially ready for a policy change, that is, the likelihood of lower rates is lower than increases. The chorus of speeches by the Fed members was surprisingly well-coordinated: everyone is sure that...

So … FRS Protocol, February 19 The January 29 document is hopelessly outdated even for analysts. The impact of the epidemic on the US economy could not be assessed before the release of statistics for February, and Powell’s position on the FRS's balance sheet was set out at a January press con...

We review strictly the strongest factors: Pound The Briton continues to fall amid mutual threats between the EU and Britain on a post-Brexit deal. Britain is threatening to raise duties on imports of France's products and Germany's cars, Macron wants to tighten the EU's mandate for any trade d...

The main theme of last week, of course, is British. Commemoratives in honour of Brexit were sold out in a matter of hours − the Royal Mint barely handled the orders. UK and EU begin to live separately, but a hangover after the festive banquet prevents assessing the prospects. Scottish nationalists...

Euro and ECB The ECB left the policy unchanged until the US presidential election in November, but a global review of the strategy has been announced. The press conference of Lagarde disappointed. The new head of the Central Bank is not an economist, perhaps that is why many questions were not ...

Everything is fine in the USA − only the JOLTs vacancy report was very different from the rest of the statistics, hinting at a possible slowdown in the labour market. This means that in the absence of convincing evidence of the global economic recovery, the dollar will be in strong demand. USA ...

Iran The murdered General Suleimani remains a factor in pressure on markets: exporting countries loud in praises to him as a man who gave his life for oil, and the buying countries hate him for it. It is possible to consider the American impeachment as the root cause, but also the repartition o...

Iran Yesterday, Iran announced its refusal to comply with the nuclear agreement, and US Secretary of State Pompeo believes that now any steps against Tehran can be considered «legitimate.» The killing of Qasem Soleimani increases the likelihood of direct military action in the region. Sanctions...

Euro The EU in the tariff war with the United States intends to drag out time until spring. Euro-asset volatility is underestimated, and risk-related assets are too expensive. The loss of investor interest in US stocks amid a slowdown in the US economy, lack of support from the Fed and overbought S...

USA Alas, in 2019 the dollar lost such trumps as the FRS's aggressive monetary restriction, but the weakness of rival currencies, the reduction of foreign trade deficits, and the S&P 500 rally did allow it to feel confident. The American show «Impeachment» is developing in a depressive scenario...